Sensex Down 239 Points, Nifty at 24,752; Tomorrow Nifty Prediction

Sensex, Nifty Close Lower Amid Range-Bound Trade; Analysts Eye Key Support, Resistance Levels for May 29

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Tuesday, May 28, amid subdued global cues, profit booking, and a lack of strong domestic triggers. The Sensex and Nifty traded in a narrow range throughout the session, failing to maintain early gains.

Broader market sentiment remained cautious, with selective buying in sectors such as defence and PSU banks, while FMCG, pharma, and metal stocks saw selling pressure.

Market Snapshot: May 28, 2025

Key Market Trends:

• Sensex and Nifty ended in the red amid lackluster trade and weak global sentiment.
• 36 out of 50 Nifty stocks closed in negative territory.
• 18 of 30 Sensex constituents saw declines.
• 6 out of 12 Nifty Bank stocks posted gains, indicating selective strength in financials.
• The Midcap index closed flat, signaling indecisiveness among broader market investors.

Sectoral Overview:

Gainers:

• Defence stocks gained momentum following expectations of higher capital expenditure in the upcoming budget and recent contract wins.
• PSU Banks continued their upward trend, backed by improving balance sheets and rising investor confidence.

Losers:

• FMCG stocks witnessed profit booking after recent rallies, with concerns about rural demand persisting.
• Pharma and metal stocks declined amid global growth concerns and weak export outlook.

Expert Views: Market in a Consolidation Phase

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services

According to Nair, domestic markets are currently grappling with multiple headwinds. “Indices remained range-bound with a negative bias due to weakening foreign institutional investor (FII) flows and relatively expensive valuations.

Additionally, uncertainty over India-U.S. trade ties—especially after a 90-day negotiation pause—is creating near-term pressure.”

However, Nair believes the medium-term outlook remains positive. Key supportive factors include:

• Expectations of a normal monsoon season, which could boost rural demand and agriculture output.
• Declining inflation, particularly in food and energy prices, which improves household purchasing power.
• Robust Q4 GDP expectations, likely to reaffirm India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy.

“While macro indicators remain healthy, there is a need for earnings growth to catch up,” Nair added. “A combination of strong earnings and economic data will be crucial to reigniting bullish sentiment.”

Technical View: Crucial Levels for Nifty Ahead of May 29

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst, Mehta Equities Ltd

“Nifty is currently navigating a very critical technical phase,” said Arora. “The 25,000 level is acting as a significant psychological and technical resistance. Despite multiple attempts, the index has been unable to sustain above it.”

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 25,100–25,150
• Support: 24,700
• Breakdown scenario: A sustained move below 24,700 may open the door for a deeper correction to 24,500.
• Breakout scenario: A strong move above 25,150, especially with volume support, could signal a fresh rally.

Arora advises traders to adopt a cautious stance with strict stop-loss levels, especially amid global uncertainties and ahead of key macroeconomic data releases.

Brokerage Outlook: ICICI Securities Bullish on Nifty’s Medium-Term Trajectory

Analysts at ICICI Securities maintain a bullish medium-term view despite the recent consolidation.

According to the brokerage, the Nifty is in the process of forming a strong base between 24,200 and 25,100. Once this range is firmly established, the index is expected to march toward the next milestone of 25,500.

Their strategy suggests that any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities, provided macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate earnings remain supportive.

The brokerage also expects cyclical sectors, including financials, infrastructure, and autos, to lead the next leg of the rally.

Rupee Movement: Marginal Weakness

The Indian rupee weakened slightly, closing 3 paise lower at ₹85.36 against the US dollar. Currency traders attributed this to dollar strength globally and persistent FII outflows from domestic equity markets.

Market Prediction for May 29: What to Watch

As the market heads into the final trading session of the month, the following factors will be closely monitored by traders and investors:

1. Global Market Cues

• US markets and bond yields
• Crude oil prices
• Developments in China and Europe’s economic indicators

2. Domestic Data Points

• Progress of monsoon
• Monthly FII/DII activity
• Fiscal deficit and infrastructure spending trends

3. Technical Levels

• Holding above 24,700 will be key for bulls.
• A close above 25,150 can serve as a breakout trigger.

4. Stock-Specific Action

• PSU banks, defence, and auto stocks may remain in focus due to policy-related momentum and value buying.
• Investors should also watch earnings upgrades or downgrades by brokerages as the Q4 results season winds down.

Final Thoughts: Market at a Crossroads, Awaiting a Clear Trigger

The Indian equity market appears to be in a short-term consolidation phase, caught between global macro pressures and encouraging domestic fundamentals.

While sectoral rotations continue, broad-based participation is lacking, as seen in the tepid midcap performance and resistance at key index levels.

However, experts maintain that the underlying strength in the economy — supported by falling inflation, robust GDP growth, and policy stability — could lay the groundwork for the next rally.

Investors with a medium- to long-term horizon are advised to use corrections as accumulation opportunities, particularly in high-quality, growth-oriented sectors.

With technical levels tightening and sentiment finely balanced, May 29 could be a pivotal day in determining the near-term direction of the market.