India–US Trade Deal Boosts Gems & Jewellery Exports, Goldiam Shares Jump 17%

The Dawn of a Golden Era: How the India-US Trade Deal Revitalizes the Gems and Jewelry Sector

The landscape of global trade shifted dramatically on February 9, 2026, as news of a landmark reciprocal trade deal between India and the United States sent shockwaves through the financial markets. For India’s gems and jewelry sector—a cornerstone of the nation’s export economy—this agreement represents more than just a policy shift; it is a lifeline. With tariffs on gold jewelry slashed to 18% and duties on certain diamond exports potentially reaching zero, the industry is poised for a massive 25% surge in export volume, reclaiming its status as a premier global supplier.

The Historical Context: From Dominance to Decline

To understand the magnitude of this deal, one must look at the recent volatility that plagued the sector. Historically, India has been the backbone of the American jewelry market. At its peak, India accounted for roughly 30% of the US’s $30 billion annual demand for diamonds and jewelry. However, the “tariff wars” and protectionist policies of previous years saw duties climb as high as 50%, a crippling blow that led to a 50% drop in Indian exports to the region.

Experts note that during the height of the Trump-era tariff escalations, diamond exports plummeted by 60%, while finished jewelry saw a 30% contraction. This wasn’t just a number on a balance sheet; it led to the closure of hundreds of polishing units in Surat and Mumbai, leaving thousands of skilled artisans unemployed during a global recessionary period.

The New Math: 18% and the Path to 25% Growth

The centerpiece of the new agreement is the reduction of the reciprocal tariff to 18%. Bharat Soni, former advisor to the Gems and Jewellery Trade Council of India (GJTCI), highlights that this reduction levels the playing field. With the cost of entry lowered, India is expected to capture an additional 25% of the US market share almost immediately.

“We aren’t just looking for new buyers; we are recovering our old strongholds,” says Bhowmik Dholakia, Director of Goldsook Enterprises. “After establishing a firm foothold in Canada, the US market was the final frontier for our expansion strategy. This deal provides the friction-less environment we needed.”

The math for Indian exporters is simple: lower tariffs mean more competitive pricing on the shelves of New York and Los Angeles. As diamond factories in Gujarat restart their wheels, the industry is preparing to fill the $7.5 billion gap created by the previous years’ decline.

A Diplomatic and Economic “Golden Era”

Speaking with CNBC-Awaaz, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that this deal is as much about diplomacy as it is about dollars. He described the agreement as a “significant message” that strengthens the bilateral bond between the world’s two largest democracies.

“This will be a golden era for Indian companies,” Goyal stated. He noted that while the 18% duty on gold jewelry is a massive improvement, the broader deal aims for zero duty on specific gem categories, effectively removing the barriers that once stifled Indian craftsmanship. This move is expected to trigger a wave of not just US investment, but global capital, as international brands look to India as a primary manufacturing hub.

Market Reaction: Stocks on Fire

The stock market’s response was instantaneous and euphoric. On February 9th, the “Big Bloom” in jewelry stocks became the story of the day.

Goldiam International, with its heavy focus on exports and lab-grown diamond integration, led the pack. Investors are betting that Goldiam’s existing infrastructure will allow them to pivot faster than competitors to meet the renewed American demand. Even Titan Company, already trading at premium valuations, saw a 3% bump as it nears its all-time record high, signaling confidence from institutional investors.

The Socio-Economic Impact: Employment and Labor

Beyond the glitz of the stock tickers, the trade deal carries profound implications for India’s labor market. Anita Rangan, Chief Economist at RBL Bank, points out that the gems and jewelry sector is uniquely labor-intensive. Unlike automated manufacturing, the intricate “karigari” (craftsmanship) of Indian jewelry cannot be easily replicated by machines.

“Sectors like textiles, gems and jewelry, and handicrafts are the backbone of Indian employment,” Rangan explains. “The deals reached with the US and the EU act as a ‘double positive.’ They provide renewed vigor to the export engine while ensuring that the millions of artisans who were sidelined by the recession can return to the workforce.”

Angel One’s analysis echoes this sentiment, suggesting that the “multiplier effect” of this deal will be felt most in the rural and semi-urban hubs where jewelry manufacturing is concentrated. For every 1% increase in export volume, thousands of jobs are typically created or stabilized in the polishing and setting sectors.

Looking Ahead: Regaining the Luster

The road ahead is not without challenges. India must now ensure that its supply chain—from the sourcing of raw gold to the final certification of diamonds—is robust enough to handle the 25% surge in volume. There is also the matter of staying ahead of global trends, such as the rising preference for sustainable and ethically sourced stones in the US market.

However, the mood in the industry is one of unbridled optimism. The “lost luster” of the post-Trump tariff era is being polished away by a pragmatic trade policy. With an 18% tariff, the Indian jewelry box is open to America once again, promising a season of unprecedented growth, record-breaking exports, and a revitalized manufacturing sector.