Sensex Down 212 Points, Nifty at 24,853; Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow
Markets End Lower Amid Geopolitical Jitters; Nifty in Rangebound Zone Ahead of Fed Meeting — What to Expect on June 18
Indian equity markets ended Tuesday’s trading session on a weak note, as heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran spooked global investors and weighed on risk sentiment.
Amid cautious trading and volatility, both benchmark indices closed in the red, with the broader markets also registering losses.
The Sensex slipped 213 points to close at 81,583, while the Nifty fell 93 points to settle at 24,853.
The pullback came as investors booked profits and stayed on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision, which is expected to influence global liquidity and sentiment going forward.
Key Highlights: Market Performance on June 17
The selloff was broad-based, with declines seen across most sectors. Midcap and smallcap indices were under notable pressure, reflecting broader market weakness.
The Nifty Midcap 100 index dropped 0.66%, while the Smallcap index slipped 0.69%, underperforming the frontline indices.
Sectoral Snapshot: IT Shines Amid Broad-Based Weakness
Almost all sectoral indices ended the session in the red, except for Information Technology (IT), which managed to post gains despite the weak broader sentiment.
This resilience was driven by strength in frontline tech stocks like Tech Mahindra, Infosys, TCS, and Asian Paints.
On the flip side, pharma, metal, oil & gas, and realty stocks came under significant pressure. The Pharma and Metal indices were the biggest losers, as global uncertainty and currency fluctuations impacted investor appetite for defensives and cyclicals alike. Auto and public sector enterprises (PSE) stocks also contributed to the drag.
Stock-Specific Movers
Among the most active and discussed stocks on the NSE were:
- Vishal Mega Mart
- Mazagon Dock
- Sterlite Technologies
- Cochin Shipyard
- BSE Limited
These stocks saw heavy trading volumes and notable price action due to a combination of institutional flows, retail participation, and company-specific developments.
Top Losers on Nifty:
- Adani Enterprises
- Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories
- Sun Pharma
- Tata Motors
- Eternal
Top Gainers on Nifty:
- Tech Mahindra
- Infosys
- TCS
- Asian Paints
- Maruti Suzuki
Rupee Under Pressure Amid Rising Dollar and Oil Prices
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar, mirroring the nervousness in the domestic equity markets.
Rising crude oil prices, consistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and strengthening of the US dollar index added pressure to the local currency.
Expert Take:
Anuj Chaudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset – Sharekhan, noted that the rupee’s recent weakness is driven by a combination of external and domestic factors:
“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, have led to a spike in crude oil prices. At the same time, the strengthening US dollar and persistent FII selling have hurt the rupee. However, if the geopolitical situation de-escalates, the rupee may find some support.”
Chaudhary expects the USD/INR spot price to trade within a range of ₹85.90 to ₹86.60 in the near term.
Technical Outlook: Will Nifty Break Out of Its Trading Range?
The markets have been consolidating within a defined range over the past several sessions. According to analysts, a decisive breakout is required to signal a new directional trend.
View from Aditya Gaggar, Progressive Shares
Aditya Gaggar highlighted that the Nifty opened weak and traded in a narrow range throughout the session, ending the day at 24,853.40, down 93.10 points.
He emphasized that the index is currently stuck in a range between 24,500 and 25,100, with no clear breakout yet in sight:
“We are awaiting a clear and sustainable breakout on either side of the current trading range. The immediate resistance stands at 25,040, while support is seen at 24,715. Until we see a break beyond these levels, the index may continue to consolidate.”
The IT sector’s outperformance could lend temporary support, but broader market weakness and external triggers are likely to dominate sentiment in the short term.
Rupak Dey, LKP Securities: Rangebound Action Expected
Rupak Dey from LKP Securities echoed similar caution. He noted that Nifty faced resistance around the psychological mark of 25,000, leading to a minor correction toward support at 24,850.
“Despite trading above the 200-DMA on the hourly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence on both daily and hourly charts, indicating weak momentum.”
Dey added that investors are awaiting cues from the US Federal Reserve meeting, making it likely that the index will remain rangebound in the near term.
“A decisive break below 24,850 could lead to further downside, whereas 25,000 remains a strong upside barrier.”
What to Watch on June 18
With multiple cross-currents affecting the market, investors and traders should closely monitor the following factors:
- Outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting – any surprise on rate projections could sway global equity and currency markets.
- Geopolitical developments, especially any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East, which could affect crude oil prices and risk appetite.
- Crude oil trends, as India remains a net importer and rising prices could exacerbate inflation concerns.
- FII flows, which have remained negative amid global risk-off sentiment.
- US macro data, including retail sales and industrial production, which may influence global risk sentiment.
Final Thoughts: Markets at a Crossroads
The Indian markets are currently in a holding pattern, caught between global uncertainty and a lack of strong domestic triggers.
The Nifty’s trading range between 24,500 and 25,100 has so far held, but analysts believe a decisive breakout in either direction could determine the next leg of the move.
Until then, markets are likely to witness rangebound and volatile action, especially with global events like the Fed meeting and geopolitical developments in focus.
Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance, keep stop-losses tight, and focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals while avoiding speculative bets until market direction becomes clearer.
