Sensex Down 368 Points, Nifty at 24,487; Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow

Stock Market Update: Markets End Lower on August 12; Key Levels to Watch Ahead of August 13

Indian equity markets witnessed a mild pullback on Monday, August 12, snapping a short-lived rebound seen in the previous session.

Despite the decline, technical indicators suggest that the broader short-term uptrend remains intact, and traders are now eyeing crucial support levels and upcoming macroeconomic data to gauge market direction going forward.

Market Summary: Benchmarks Close in the Red

The BSE Sensex ended the session with a loss of 368.49 points, or 0.46%, closing at 80,235.59, while the Nifty 50 fell 97.65 points, or 0.40%, to settle at 24,487.40—breaking below the psychologically important 24,500 mark.

The session saw volatility with both indices oscillating between gains and losses before succumbing to late selling pressure.

Despite the headline indices ending in the red, market breadth was relatively even. On the BSE, 1,994 stocks advanced, 1,889 declined, and 157 remained unchanged, indicating no strong directional bias across broader segments.

Gainers and Losers: Auto and IT Shine, FMCG and Banks Drag

Among the top Nifty gainers, the auto and technology sectors led the charge:

• Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp, and M&M posted solid gains, buoyed by strong sales data and expectations of sustained demand during the upcoming festive season.
• Tech Mahindra and NTPC also contributed positively to the index, with buying seen in select large-cap IT and energy names.

On the other hand, the top losers included:

• Bajaj Finance, which saw profit booking after a sharp rally in previous sessions.
• HUL and Nestle, which dragged the FMCG sector lower amid concerns of margin pressure due to rising input costs.
• Trent and HDFC Bank, both of which experienced weakness in retail and banking sectors respectively.

Broader Markets: Midcaps Underperform, Smallcaps Steady

The BSE Midcap Index underperformed slightly, falling by 0.2%, while the Smallcap Index ended flat, reflecting cautious investor sentiment in the broader markets.

While smallcap buying was selective, many investors preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of key macroeconomic data releases.

Sectoral Performance: Mixed Cues Dominate

A mixed trend was observed across sectoral indices:

• Positive momentum was seen in Auto, Pharma, Metal, Oil & Gas, IT, and Media, with gains ranging from 0.3% to 0.7%. These sectors benefited from stock-specific action, global commodity movements, and a weak rupee that aided exporters.
• Conversely, Realty, FMCG, Banking, and Consumer Durables indices closed with losses of up to 0.5%, weighed down by valuation concerns and muted earnings guidance.

Technical Outlook: Support Holds Key to Near-Term Direction

On the technical front, Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that the Nifty formed a small red candle with a long upper shadow on the daily chart. This pattern typically indicates selling pressure at higher levels and a lack of bullish momentum near resistance zones.

“The formation suggests that the market is struggling to break past higher resistance zones decisively,” Shetti explained. “However, as long as the index holds above the 24,300 support level, the bullish structure remains intact.”

He further added that a sustained move above the immediate resistance at 24,700 could pave the way for a breakout toward all-time highs, but until then, consolidation and range-bound movement can be expected.

Short-Term Outlook: Buy on Dips Near Support

Following Monday’s decline, the broader short-term uptrend—which resumed after last week’s rally—remains unbroken, according to multiple analysts. The key level to watch is the 24,300–24,400 zone, where fresh buying interest is likely to emerge.

“If Nifty approaches this range in the coming sessions, we expect buyers to step in, offering a potential platform for a bounce back,” said Shetti. “This makes 24,300 a crucial pivot level for near-term traders.”

If this support holds, Nifty could retest the 24,700 mark—a significant resistance zone that has held firm in recent sessions.

A breakout above this level could trigger short-covering and momentum-based buying, possibly pushing the index toward uncharted territory.

Macro Factors in Focus: Inflation Data and Global Cues

Looking ahead, the market’s direction is likely to be influenced by a series of important macroeconomic events, both domestic and global.

Vaibhav Vidwani, Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, stated that all eyes are now on India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for July, which is scheduled to be released shortly.

“According to a Reuters poll, retail inflation in India is expected to ease significantly to 1.76%, which would mark an eight-year low,” Vidwani noted. “Such a drop would strengthen expectations that the RBI may continue its pause on interest rates, providing relief to rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, auto, and banking.”

On the global front, the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is also critical. A softer-than-expected reading could ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve, reinforcing the view that peak interest rates are behind us.

In addition, geopolitical developments, particularly the anticipated US-Russia diplomatic talks later this week, are being closely monitored. “Any breakthrough—or escalation—could significantly influence global investor sentiment,” added Vidwani.

Investor Strategy: Stay Selective, Watch Support Zones

In the current scenario, experts advise traders and investors to remain selective and adopt a buy-on-dips approach, especially near identified support levels.

With macro data acting as the next major catalyst, volatility could remain elevated, and thus, risk management becomes crucial.

Key Technical Levels to Watch:

• Support Zone: 24,300 – 24,400
• Immediate Resistance: 24,700
• Breakout Level: Sustained move above 24,700 may lead to fresh upside
• Critical Pivot for Bulls: Holding above 24,300

Final Thoughts

While the market ended lower on August 12, the underlying tone remains cautiously optimistic. Traders are advised to closely track support levels and upcoming economic data that could provide direction in the short term.

If Nifty holds above 24,300 and macro data supports the trend, the bulls may regain control and aim for fresh record highs