Sensex Down 61 Points, Nifty at 24,634; Tomorrow Nifty Prediction
Market Closes Flat Amid Volatility — What to Expect on September 30
The Indian stock market ended flat in a choppy trading session on September 29, as benchmark indices failed to hold on to early gains. Investors remained cautious amid global headwinds, concerns over foreign outflows, and persistent selling pressure in heavyweight stocks.
The Nifty 50 index slipped for the seventh consecutive session from its mid-July highs, signaling a possible shift toward the seasonally weaker September-March phase, which often sees lower investor sentiment and increased market volatility.
Market Recap: September 29
On Friday, the BSE Sensex fell by 61.52 points, or 0.08%, closing at 80,364.94, while the NSE Nifty 50 lost 19.80 points, also down 0.08%, ending the session at 24,634.90. Despite the headline indices remaining largely unchanged, market breadth was slightly negative: 1,837 stocks advanced, 2,163 declined, and 171 remained unchanged on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), reflecting broader weakness across sectors.
Among broader indices, the BSE Midcap index posted a modest gain of 0.3%, showing some resilience in mid-tier stocks, while the Smallcap index dipped marginally, indicating selective profit-booking by investors in high-risk counters.
Sectoral and Stock Highlights
Sector-wise, the performance was mixed. Oil & Gas, PSU Banks, Energy, and Realty indices posted gains of up to 1%, supported by bargain buying and expectations of improved sectoral outlooks. On the flip side, the Media index declined nearly 1%, dragged down by weakness in key constituents and concerns about advertising revenue growth in a slowing economy.
On the Nifty 50, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Apollo Hospitals, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories were among the top laggards, witnessing selling pressure due to a combination of profit-booking, valuation concerns, and sector-specific headwinds.
Meanwhile, top gainers included Eternal, Bharat Electronics, IndusInd Bank, Titan Company, and Wipro—driven by positive institutional flows, technical breakouts, and favorable outlooks in their respective industries.
Technical Outlook and Derivatives Insight
According to Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty initially saw an upward move on Friday but faced resistance near the 20-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the hourly chart. This led to a weak closing on the daily chart, confirming the market’s struggle to find a firm direction.
Bhuva noted that derivative data reveals significant put writing at the 24,600 and 24,500 strike prices—levels that could now act as immediate support zones. Conversely, call writing has been observed at the 24,700 and 24,800 levels, indicating strong resistance in the short term.
“Unless Nifty convincingly breaks above the 50-day EMA, which currently lies around the 24,850 mark, a sustained uptrend is unlikely,” Bhuva added. “We expect a sideways-to-bearish undertone in the short term, with Nifty likely to trade in the 24,500 to 24,850 range.”
Broader Sentiment: Foreign Outflows, Valuations, and Global Cues
Adding to the caution, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, pointed out a critical macro trend: foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pulled out over $21 billion from Indian markets in the past 12 months—marking the largest outflow among emerging markets during this period. This sustained capital flight has contributed to the 3.5% depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar.
According to Vijayakumar, elevated valuation levels and sluggish earnings growth are key concerns weighing on investor confidence. “The Nifty has broken below the 24,800 support level and is showing signs of technical weakness. However, with several indicators entering oversold territory, a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out,” he explained.
Still, he cautioned that any recovery will require strong fundamental catalysts—such as positive developments on trade negotiations with the US or an uptick in Q2 earnings.
Medium-Term Perspective: Bearish Seasonality in Play?
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, highlighted the seasonal aspect of current market behavior. “This is the seventh straight session of decline for the Nifty since its mid-July highs, which is reminiscent of the September-March bearish phase that the market often experiences,” he said.
He noted that the stochastic indicator—a momentum oscillator—is now moving into oversold territory, which may lead to a sideways move or a pullback in the early part of the upcoming week. James expects a short-term rally that could take Nifty up to 24,720–24,830, with a possibility of testing 24,970, before potentially retesting support levels around 24,500.
“This could be a classic ‘dead cat bounce’ unless followed by strong volumes and institutional participation,” he warned.
Key Levels to Watch for September 30
Traders and investors should keep an eye on the following key levels for the next trading session:
- Immediate Support: 24,500
- Immediate Resistance: 24,700–24,850
- Breakout Level: 24,970 (If crossed with volume, it could lead to a sustained rally)
- Breakdown Risk: Below 24,500, a further fall toward 24,300–24,200 may unfold
Final Thoughts: Caution Ahead of a Pivotal Week
As we head into the final trading day of the month on September 30, market participants remain on edge. The confluence of foreign outflows, elevated valuations, and technical weakness is keeping the bulls at bay, while the oversold conditions suggest a possible short-term relief rally.
However, for any meaningful recovery to take shape, traders will be looking for positive global cues, progress in India’s trade relations, and early signs of strong earnings in the upcoming corporate results season.
In the meantime, market sentiment is likely to remain sideways-to-bearish, with heightened volatility expected around key technical levels. Caution and selective stock-picking remain the need of the hour.
