Sensex Gain 320 Points, Nifty at 24,833; Tomorrow Nifty Prediction

Markets Close Strong Ahead of June Series – What Lies Ahead for May 30?

Indian equity markets ended the May series on a strong note, staging a robust intraday recovery after a volatile session. The Nifty and Sensex closed near their intraday highs, led by buying in key sectors such as metal, real estate, pharma, and auto.

Despite the positive finish, analysts remain cautious about short-term trends, citing technical indicators that still suggest underlying weakness.

As investors gear up for the final trading day of the week and month, market watchers are keeping a close eye on global cues, technical levels, and sector-specific triggers that could dictate short-term market movements.

Key Highlights from May 29 Session

On the day of the monthly F&O expiry, equity benchmarks ended with notable gains:

• Nifty 50 rose by 81 points, closing at 24,834
• Sensex advanced 321 points to settle at 81,633
• Nifty Bank closed 129 points higher at 55,546

Broader markets outperformed the headline indices:

• Nifty Midcap 100 surged 316 points, ending at 57,457
• Smallcap indices also ended near the day’s high, reflecting strong risk appetite in the broader market

The final hour of trade saw a significant pickup in buying activity, helping major indices recover from the day’s lows and close near their highest levels. Positive cues from global markets, short covering ahead of expiry, and strong sectoral rotation contributed to the uptrend.

Sectoral Snapshot

The rally was broad-based, though not all sectors participated equally. Here’s a look at the sectoral performance:

• Gainers:
  • Metal: Strong global metal prices and renewed interest in cyclical sectors supported metal stocks.
  • Real Estate: Real estate stocks continued their upward momentum, benefiting from strong demand outlook and supportive policy environment.
  • Pharma: Selective buying returned to pharma counters after recent underperformance.
  • Auto and IT: Both indices closed with gains, driven by stock-specific strength and positive global cues.
• Lagging Sectors:
  • FMCG and PSE: Both sectors saw mild profit booking and closed marginally in the red.

In terms of market breadth:

• 36 out of 50 Nifty stocks ended in the green
• 24 of 30 Sensex constituents closed higher
• 9 out of 12 Nifty Bank stocks gained

This strong participation indicates broad market support, especially from mid- and small-cap segments, where investors are increasingly looking for alpha amid index-level consolidation.

Currency Watch

On the currency front, the Indian rupee depreciated by 14 paise, closing at 85.50 against the US dollar. Persistent dollar strength, along with foreign fund outflows and higher crude oil prices, weighed on the domestic currency.

Technical View: A Delicate Balance

Despite the strong finish, technical analysts are not entirely bullish on near-term market direction. Indicators suggest that markets remain vulnerable to a downside break if key support levels are breached.

Rupak Dey, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities:

“The Nifty witnessed volatile moves on the day of monthly expiry. Although it recovered smartly, underlying weakness remains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still pointing downwards, indicating that the momentum is yet to turn decisively positive.”

Dey identifies 24,670 as the next crucial support level. A breach below this could trigger a sharper correction, potentially dragging the index down to 24,400.

“However, if Nifty sustains above 24,670, there is a good chance of a pullback rally toward 25,000–25,150, especially if sentiment improves and sectoral buying persists.”

Sameet Chavan, Head of Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One:

“From a trading perspective, 25,000 now acts as a psychological resistance. On the downside, immediate support is around 24,600, which also coincides with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (20DEMA).”

Chavan points out that the index is currently trapped in a narrow range, lacking strong directional conviction. In this scenario, traders are advised to focus more on stock-specific and sector-specific opportunities rather than index-level trades.

“There’s been a lot of sectoral churn, and while some stocks have shown breakouts, the lack of follow-through buying raises red flags. A cautious, selective approach is necessary.”

Fundamental Perspective: Long-Term Outlook Positive

While the near-term remains technically fragile, fundamental analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook on Indian equities.

Arvind Maheshwari, MD & Head of Equities, BofA Securities:

“Valuations for the Nifty are reasonable at current levels. We believe the market will likely consolidate in the near term, but the long-term structural growth story remains intact.”

According to Maheshwari, sectors such as infrastructure, banking, manufacturing, and digital services offer multi-year growth potential, which could continue to attract both domestic and foreign investors.

“Earnings visibility, government policy continuity, and capex recovery are key pillars supporting the Indian equity story going forward.”

Market Prediction for May 30 and Beyond

With the May F&O series behind us, attention now turns to June triggers. Key data points, including fiscal deficit numbers, core sector output, and global macro developments, could shape sentiment in the coming days.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 24,950 – 25,150
• Support: 24,670 – 24,400

Trading Strategy:

• Bullish Bias: If Nifty sustains above 24,670, traders may look for short-term opportunities in auto, IT, and real estate.
• Bearish Risk: A breakdown below 24,670 could lead to a sharp correction. Traders should keep stop-losses tight and avoid chasing rallies.

Sectors in Focus:

• Positive Momentum: Metals, Real Estate, Pharma, Auto
• Caution Advised: FMCG, PSU Stocks

Final Thoughts

While markets have shown resilience and closed the May series on a high note, the path ahead is not without hurdles.

Technical indicators point to caution, and global headwinds may continue to add volatility. However, with a favorable domestic macro setup and sectoral tailwinds, Indian equities remain well-positioned over the medium to long term.

Investors should maintain a balanced approach—leveraging opportunities in outperforming sectors while keeping a close watch on key support levels. For traders, a focus on disciplined risk management and sector rotation will be critical as the market navigates through a range-bound zone.