Sensex Gain 715 Points, Nifty at 24,836; Nifty Prediction for Oct 3
Market Wrap-Up: Indices End Strong on RBI Day; What to Expect on October 3
The Indian equity market closed with strong gains on October 1, registering a solid start to the new quarter and reacting positively to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement. The rally was broad-based, with most sectors finishing in the green, boosting investor confidence ahead of the next trading session on October 3.
Key Market Highlights
At the close of trade, the BSE Sensex surged 715.69 points, or 0.89 percent, to end at 80,983.31, while the Nifty 50 gained 225.20 points, or 0.92 percent, to settle at 24,836.30. This marked a strong recovery from the recent consolidation seen in late September and suggested a return of bullish sentiment after a period of cautious trade.
Market breadth was firmly in favor of the bulls. A total of 2,672 stocks advanced, while 1,284 declined, and 132 stocks remained unchanged on the BSE, indicating a strong buying bias across the broader market.
Sectoral Performance
Most sectoral indices posted gains, with the exception of PSU banks, which ended the day in the red. Private banks, real estate, pharmaceuticals, IT, and media stocks saw notable momentum, registering gains in the range of 1 to 4 percent.
Among the major sectoral gainers:
- Nifty Realty and Nifty Pharma posted standout performances amid hopes of improved earnings and stable policy outlook.
- IT stocks rebounded after recent underperformance, supported by a stable rupee and renewed optimism about global tech spending.
- Private banks benefited from clarity in the RBI’s stance on liquidity and interest rates, which bolstered sentiment in rate-sensitive sectors.
On the flip side, PSU bank stocks witnessed some profit-taking after recent sharp gains and ahead of fresh triggers, possibly from upcoming Q2 earnings.
Top Movers
In the Nifty 50 pack, Tata Motors, Shriram Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, and Sun Pharma emerged as the top gainers, riding high on a combination of positive news flow, technical breakouts, and improved earnings outlook.
Conversely, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, SBI, UltraTech Cement, and Bajaj Auto were among the top losers, although their losses were relatively moderate. Some of these counters witnessed mild profit-booking after a strong rally in the previous weeks.
The BSE Midcap index rose 0.9 percent, and the Smallcap index advanced by 1 percent, reflecting strong interest in broader markets. The recent performance in the mid- and small-cap segments also suggests that retail investor participation remains strong, aided by domestic liquidity inflows.
Technical Take: What the Charts Say
From a technical standpoint, the rally on October 1 marked a crucial breakout for the Nifty, according to Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
“The Nifty closed decisively above its 100-day EMA of 24,750, which had previously acted as a strong resistance zone. This close above the key moving average suggests renewed strength and could set the tone for further upside in the near term,” he noted.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, Bhuva also pointed out that the Nifty has retraced 61 percent of the recent Fibonacci move — measured from the September 1 low to the September 18 high of 25,453. This retracement level is often considered significant by technical traders, and the ability of the index to hold above it reinforces the case for a continued uptrend.
Looking at derivatives data, heavy put writing at the 24,700–24,800 strike levels suggests that traders are confident about a higher base being formed. The maximum open interest continues to be concentrated at the 25,000 level, indicating a likely near-term resistance point.
Support for the Nifty is now seen at 24,700, while resistance is expected in the 25,000–25,100 range.
Analyst Outlook: What Lies Ahead?
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, acknowledged that while the Nifty closed near the day’s low, momentum indicators (oscillators) still point to potential for further upside.
“Despite some intraday selling, the broader structure remains constructive. As long as the index holds above 24,700, we remain bullish in the short term,” James said.
He placed immediate resistance levels at 24,970 and 25,050, and support levels at 24,500 and 24,336, providing traders with clear reference points for the upcoming sessions.
James also emphasized that with the RBI maintaining a balanced tone in its policy statement — keeping interest rates unchanged while focusing on inflation management — markets received a clear signal that rate hikes are likely off the table for now. This macro backdrop bodes well for equities, especially in sectors like real estate, banking, and consumer durables.
Macro Cues & Upcoming Triggers
Apart from the RBI policy, auto sales data released for September added fuel to the rally. A strong showing by leading automakers helped lift sentiment in the broader consumption space. With the festive season approaching, the street expects demand to pick up further, especially in two-wheelers, passenger vehicles, and FMCG.
Looking ahead to October 3, investors will keep an eye on:
- Global market trends, especially from the US and Europe
- Crude oil prices, which remain volatile
- Currency movements, particularly the USD/INR pair
- FII and DII flows, which have shown signs of stabilization
Final Thoughts: Bullish Undertone Intact
Overall, the Indian markets appear to be entering October on a firm footing. Technical indicators, derivatives positioning, and sectoral participation all suggest that bulls are in control — at least in the short term. While some volatility cannot be ruled out due to global uncertainties and profit-taking at higher levels, the broader outlook remains positive.
With Nifty poised just below the psychological 25,000 mark, traders and investors will be watching closely to see if it can break above this resistance zone on October 3. A decisive move above 25,100 could open the door for further gains towards 25,300 and beyond in the coming sessions.
