Sensex Down 511 Points, Nifty at 24,971; Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow

Markets End in the Red as Geopolitical Tensions Escalate — What Lies Ahead on June 24

Indian equity markets closed on a negative note on June 23, weighed down by global geopolitical tensions and weak cues from global peers.

Investors reacted sharply to the latest developments in the Middle East, particularly the increasing involvement of the United States in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.

The heightened uncertainty led to early panic selling, although partial recovery was seen in intraday trade.

Despite some resilience from broader market indices, the benchmark indices failed to hold on to gains and settled firmly in the red, with Nifty slipping below the critical 25,000 mark and Sensex losing over 500 points.

Market Closing Snapshot — June 23, 2025

• BSE Sensex: Closed at 81,896.79, down 511.38 points or 0.62%
• NSE Nifty 50: Ended at 24,971.90, falling 140.50 points or 0.56%
• Nifty Bank: Down by 0.8%
• India VIX (Volatility Index): Rose 5.2%, reflecting increased investor anxiety

The session opened on a negative note and saw sharp declines in early trade. However, bargain hunting at lower levels helped pare some losses. Still, upward momentum was capped amid weak global cues and investor caution.

Market Breadth and Participation

Market breadth was marginally negative:

• Advancing stocks: 1,794
• Declining stocks: 2,113
• Unchanged: 175

The trading pattern indicated selective buying in specific sectors, with traders showing preference for defensives and value-oriented midcaps over large-cap growth names.

Top Nifty Gainers and Losers

Top Gainers:

1. Trent Ltd. – Continued its strong upward momentum backed by robust quarterly earnings and retail sector optimism
2. Bharat Electronics – Gained on defense order wins and positive guidance
3. Hindalco Industries – Benefited from rising global aluminium prices
4. Adani Enterprises – Rose on short-covering and fund inflows
5. Bajaj Finance – Rebounded after a week of consolidation

Top Losers:

1. Infosys – Declined due to persistent weakness in global IT demand
2. Larsen & Toubro (L&T) – Fell on profit booking after recent highs
3. Hero MotoCorp – Dropped following weak monthly sales data
4. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) – Came under pressure due to demand slowdown in rural markets
5. HCL Technologies – Slipped amid cautious outlook on tech spending in the U.S.

Sectoral Performance

Sectoral indices were mixed, reflecting market-wide uncertainty:

Declining Sectors:

• Information Technology (IT): Down ~1.5%, led by Infosys and HCL Tech. U.S. recession fears continue to cloud demand visibility.
• FMCG and Auto: Both fell by 0.5–1% due to concerns over inflation impacting consumer demand.
• Banking and Financials: Registered declines on worries over global capital flows and interest rate volatility.

Gaining Sectors:

• Media and Metals: Emerged as top performers with gains of up to 4%, supported by domestic triggers and global commodity price recovery.
• Capital Goods and Consumer Durables: Also saw renewed buying interest, likely driven by infrastructure push and festive demand expectations.

The BSE Midcap Index closed 0.2% higher, while the Smallcap Index rose 0.6%, indicating strong participation from retail investors and confidence in domestic-focused businesses.

Expert Commentary

Aditya Gaggar, Director at Progressive Shares, said:
“Nifty opened lower and faced significant selling pressure early in the session, driven by geopolitical instability.

However, it gradually recovered from its lows, suggesting that investors are still selectively optimistic. The index did struggle to hold higher levels, indicating overhead resistance.

Sector-wise, Metals and Media outperformed, while IT and Auto remained under pressure. The broader market, however, exhibited a healthy recovery, with midcap and smallcap indices registering decent gains.”

From a technical perspective, Gaggar pointed out that Nifty has formed a Harami candlestick pattern on the daily chart.

This indicates market indecision and could lead to a breakout or breakdown in the next session. He highlighted the immediate support at 24,780 and resistance near 25,130, calling them key levels to watch in the short term.

Macroeconomic and Global Cues

The dominant theme in the market continues to be geopolitical risk. The recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and reports of increased U.S. involvement have unnerved global investors. A sustained rise in crude oil prices could spell trouble for India, which imports over 80% of its oil needs.

Prashanth Tapase, Senior VP at Mehta Equities, warned, “Tensions in the Middle East have triggered fears of supply disruption. If crude prices spike, we could see India’s import bills shoot up, pressuring the rupee and feeding into inflation.

This scenario could complicate the RBI’s monetary policy path and weigh on domestic consumption and corporate margins.”

However, Tapase noted a silver lining — Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have pumped in over ₹10,000 crore in Indian equities over the last four sessions.

This shows that India’s underlying growth story and strong macro fundamentals are still attractive, even amid global volatility.

What to Expect on June 24

Key Factors to Watch:

1. Geopolitical headlines: Any further escalation in the Middle East could impact global sentiment and commodity prices.
2. Oil prices: Brent crude’s movement remains critical, as it directly impacts India’s inflation and current account balance.
3. Technical levels: Watch for Nifty to hold above 24,780 for a potential reversal; breach below could open doors to deeper correction.
4. Rupee movement and bond yields: Any sharp depreciation in the rupee could lead to capital outflows.
5. Global market cues: Trends in U.S. and Asian markets, especially tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ, will influence domestic sentiment.

Final Thoughts

June 23 was a day of caution and consolidation for Indian equities, driven by external uncertainty and selective domestic resilience.

While large-cap indices struggled to hold gains, broader markets showed signs of strength, underscoring investor confidence in India’s long-term story.

As June 24 approaches, market participants should brace for continued volatility. Staying focused on quality stocks, monitoring geopolitical news flow, and keeping an eye on key technical levels will be crucial in navigating the near-term market landscape.