Sensex Gain 347 Points, Nifty at 24,085; Tomorrow Nifty Prediction

Indian Markets Secure Fourth Consecutive Day of Gains: In-Depth Analysis and Outlook for June 18

The Indian equity markets maintained their impressive winning streak on June 17, closing in positive territory for the fourth consecutive trading session. Despite experiencing bouts of intra-day volatility and mixed cues from global peers, the benchmark indices managed to hold onto their gains, driven by robust buying across cyclical and value sectors.

By the closing bell, the BSE Sensex surged by 347.14 points, or 0.45%, to settle at an all-time high territory of 77,155.62. Simultaneously, the NSE Nifty 50 advanced by 96.55 points, or 0.40%, to finish at 24,085.70, successfully cementing its position above the psychologically crucial 24,000 threshold.

Market Dynamics: Winners, Losers, and Sectoral Play

The trading session highlighted a distinct preference for high-beta and value-driven pockets, while defensive sectors and highly valued segments witnessed selective profit-taking.

Frontline Gainers and Losers

The Nifty 50 basket showed a healthy mix of advancing stocks:

• Top Gainers: Retail major Trent led the pack, alongside defense heavyweight Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL). Commodity and automotive players like Hindalco Industries, Eicher Motors, and Tata Steel also provided significant upward thrust.

• Top Losers: On the flip side, profit-booking dragged down Tata Motors (Passenger Vehicles), Cipla, Bajaj Finserv, ONGC, and Axis Bank, capping the day’s total gains.

Broader Market Outperformance

The broader market continued to exhibit superior risk appetite compared to the frontline indices. The Nifty Midcap 100 index gained 0.5%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index rallied 0.8%. This divergence indicates that mid- and small-sized companies are enjoying sustained retail and institutional interest, driven by localized earnings growth narratives.

Sectoral Performance Matrix

Macroeconomic Catalysts Fueling the Rally

Several internal and external macroeconomic variables converged to keep the domestic market’s upward momentum intact:

1. ECLGS Norm Relaxations & PSU Bank Resurgence:

   Public Sector Undertakings (PSU) banks witnessed a sharp rally, primarily driven by significant “mark-to-market” (MTM) gains on their treasury portfolios due to softening yields. Additionally, investor sentiment was bolstered by the relaxation of risk-weight norms under the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS), freeing up capital for these lenders.

2. Global Yield Dynamics and the Rupee:

   Ahead of the highly anticipated US Federal Reserve policy decision, domestic bond yields eased. This development, coupled with a strengthening Indian Rupee (INR), provided a favorable liquidity cushion for Indian equities.

3. Softening Crude Oil Prices:

   Crude oil prices continued their downward trajectory as geopolitical anxieties regarding supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz began to thaw. Given India’s high dependence on oil imports, lower crude prices directly alleviate fiscal deficits and corporate margin pressures.

Intraday Tug-of-War: The session wasn’t a one-way street. Early gains were temporarily pared by profit-booking over domestic concerns, specifically a slightly delayed monsoon progress report and declining water levels in key reservoirs. However, aggressive short-covering in the final hour of trade pushed the indices back to their winning positions.

Technical Outlook for June 18

As the market transitions into the June 18 session, technical analysts highlight a delicately poised market structure characterized by underlying bullishness coupled with immediate overhead resistance.

Nifty 50: The View from the Analysts

• Rupak De (Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities):

  De notes that the Nifty witnessed notable volatility throughout the day, facing firm resistance near the 24,100 level. While the index is holding comfortably above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—confirming a positive primary trend—its proximity to previous swing highs suggests that volatility will remain elevated. Intermittent profit-booking should be expected. A decisive breakout above 24,100 could clear the deck for a rally towards 24,300, while a breakdown below 24,000 could trigger a healthy corrective slide down to 23,800.

• Gaurav Udani (Founder, ThinCredBlu Securities):

  Udani emphasizes the significance of Nifty sustaining its ground above the 24,000 mark. He views this as a major structural victory for buyers, proving that dips are being actively purchased. Udani points to the 24,100 to 24,200 range as the immediate battleground. If the index clears this overhead supply zone, fresh buying momentum will likely accelerate.

Bank Nifty: Consolidation Before the Next Leg Up

The banking index took a breather on June 17, undergoing a healthy consolidation phase following its recent aggressive run.

• Vatsal Bhuva (Technical Analyst, LKP Securities):

  Bhuva points out that Bank Nifty formed a small candlestick pattern on the daily chart, a classic indication of a temporary pause or consolidation. Despite the momentary loss of intraday momentum, the broader technical setup remains overwhelmingly positive. The index is trading well above its 200-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above the 60 mark, indicating that the bulls retain control. Bhuva identifies positional support at 57,000 and 56,500, with immediate overhead resistance capped near the 57,800 mark.

Strategic Playbook for Traders on June 18

As markets gear up for the June 18 session, participants must navigate the added complexity of the weekly BSE options expiry, an event typically accompanied by increased institutional churning and intraday spikes.

• Adopt a ‘Buy-on-Dips’ Stance: With both Nifty and Bank Nifty holding above vital long-term moving averages, the primary trend remains structurally intact. Traders should view orderly intraday pullbacks toward support zones (24,000 for Nifty; 57,000 for Bank Nifty) as accumulation opportunities rather than signs of weakness.

• Exercise Patience Over Aggression: Chasing breakouts near immediate resistance levels (24,100 to 24,200) could trap capital if the market opts for prolonged consolidation. Waiting for a daily close above resistance or buying near verified support levels offers a vastly superior risk-to-reward ratio.

• Focus on Relative Strength: Sector rotation is playing a massive role in keeping the indices afloat. If heavyweights like Autos or Banking pause, pockets like Capital Goods, Power, and Metals are absorbing the liquidity. Aligning portfolios with these high-momentum sectors is likely to yield better short-term alpha.